HOW THE REPUBLICANS CAN GET TO 11

1. Sorenson has to beat Sokola.

Redistricting combined Dave Sokola, a Democratic senator, and Liane Sorenson, the Republican minority whip, in a single Hockessin-Newark seat. Although the registration leans Democratic, the district is more hers than his. A hold for Sorenson would leave: 7 Republicans

2. Lavelle needs to take out Katz.

Greg Lavelle, the House Republican minority leader, saw his seat disappear in redistricting. He told his colleagues on the first day of the 2012 legislative session he would run for the Senate against Mike Katz, a first-term Democratic senator, in a Greenville-Brandywine Hundred district where the registration favors the Republicans. A pickup by Lavelle would mean: 8 Republicans

3. The Republicans have to win a new district in Sussex County.

Sussex is the Republicans' best county, so they are favored to win this open seat at the beach, that is, if they do not self-destruct because of a primary between Ernie Lopez, a party regular, and Glen Urquhart, a tea partier. The Democrats appear settled with Andy Staton. This could be where the Republicans' dream of a majority goes to die. If not, it would mean a pickup for: 9 Republicans

4. Bunting has to retire.

George Bunting, a Democratic senator, will be 67 on Election Day. Whenever he retires, his Sussex district is expected to go Republican, most likely to Gerald Hocker, the House Republican minority whip. A pickup would be: 10 Republicans

5. Venables has to retire, too.

The retirement watch is also on for Venables, a Democratic senator who is about to celebrate his 79th birthday. When the time comes, the Republicans expect to see one of their own in this Sussex seat, probably Dan Short, a representative who used to be the mayor of Seaford. A pickup would lead to the magic number: 11 Republicans