Posted: June 23, 2016

UPDATE: RACES-TO-WATCH 2016

By Celia Cohen
Grapevine Political Writer

When there is a crowd of candidates running in a party primary, everything counts.

This is because the differences among the candidates are more likely to come from biography than policy. Otherwise, why would they all be in the same party?

The Democrats have five candidates running for Delaware's only congressional seat and six candidates for lieutenant governor, so it matters that the New Castle County Democrats decided to back someone in those primary races on Sept. 13.

They did what they might have been expected to do. They went with geography and familiarity in supporting a pair of state senators who represent districts in New Castle County, namely, Bryan Townsend for congressman and Bethany Hall-Long for lieutenant governor.

In the congressional primary, where there are three serious candidates -- Townsend, Sean Barney and Lisa Blunt Rochester -- Townsend is the one showing some gathering strength with his campaign finances, field operation and now the vote of confidence from the New Castle County Democrats.

The primary for lieutenant governor is still mostly a muddle. The backing of the New Castle County Democrats may not help Hall-Long all that much, but it was still good for her to get it, and not so good for Ciro Poppiti III, because he is a countywide officeholder as the register of wills.

Meanwhile, further down the ballot in the legislative races, it is candidate roulette.

The Republicans are seriously exerting themselves to try to take over the state Senate, where they have been mired in the minority for 43 years. They have no choice but to try to unseat Democratic state senators in Democratic districts, mostly by recruiting Millennials, so it was an unexpected gift for them when Karen Peterson, a Democratic state senator, decided against running again.

The voter registration is Democratic by 2-1, but still. An open race is a help.

In the state House of Representatives, the Democratic majority appears unthreatened, but not necessarily the Democrat in charge of it.

Pete Schwartzkopf, the Democratic speaker, has been drawing opponents. It looks like Don Peterson (no relation to Karen Peterson), who is running against Schwartzkopf in a primary, is sticking, but maybe not James DeMartino, the Republican candidate.

DeMartino, a lawyer who is a transplant from Washington, D.C., has not officially gotten on the ballot yet, because of a question about whether he can meet the three-year residency requirement.

Elsewhere, other legislative candidates are gone for good.

Bryon Short, a Democratic state representative who dropped out of the congressional race to run for re-election, has now shed two of the Democratic candidates who filed when they thought Short was departing. That leaves only Dave Brady, a former Democratic state representative, who does not look like he is leaving unless the voters make him.

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STATEWIDE

Statewide registration: 48% Democratic, 28% Republican, 24% others

There are 129,000 more Democratic than Republican voters

 

Office Democrats Republicans Rundown
Governor

John Carney

Colin Bonini

Lacey Lafferty

Call it the ABCs of the governor's race -- Anybody But Carney is all but unthinkable
U.S. House

Sean Barney

Mike Miller

Lisa Blunt Rochester

Bryan Townsend

Scott Walker

Rose Izzo

Hans Reigle

The voter math says a Democrat ought to be the next congressperson, but who? There are three serious candidates -- Barney, Rochester and Townsend -- but Townsend is the one showing a little traction
Lieutenant governor

Brad Eaby

Greg Fuller

Bethany Hall-Long

Kathy McGuiness

Ciro Poppiti III

Sherry Dorsey Walker

La Mar Gunn With so many candidates trying to stuff themselves into so small of an office, this is like the clown car of state politics
Insurance commissioner

Karen Weldin Stewart

Paul Gallagher

Trini Navarro

Jeff Cragg

George Parish

Something about Stewart never fails to attract a host of candidates. She  had a primary when she won the office in 2008 and another one in 2012. Why should 2016 be any different?

Incumbents in bold

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GENERAL ASSEMBLY

 

Current Senate: 12 Democrats, 9 Republicans (11 seats up)

Current House of Representatives: 25 Democrats, 16 Republicans (All 41 seats up)

 

TOP LEGISLATIVE RACES

District

Democrats

Republicans

Voters

Rundown

Senate 1st

Wilmington-Claymont

Harris McDowell

Joe McCole

James Spadola

D:58%

R:20%

O:22%

With a record-setting 40 years as a state senator, McDowell got to Dover before Spadola, a Millennial, was born, but this race is more likely to turn on registration, not generation

Senate 7th

Elsmere-Prices Corner

Patti Blevins

Anthony Delcollo

D:49%

R:23%

O:28%

The Republicans are going after Blevins, the president pro tem, with a Millennial, and even if it comes to nothing, they get to keep her busy at home, so she has less time to help out other Democrats

Senate 9th

Newport-Stanton-Newark

   

D:49%

R:24%

O:27%

The parties are in a mad dash to find candidates, now that Karen Peterson, the Democratic state senator, is not running for re-election

Senate 8th

Newark-Hockessin

Dave Sokola Meredith Chapman

D:40%

R:32%

O:28%

The Republicans could do worse than run a Millennial in a district that is home to the University of Delaware, where Chapman also happens to work

Senate 14th

Lower New Castle/upper Kent counties

Bruce Ennis

Carl Pace

D:47%

R:27%

O:26%

Ennis, who is 77, is the oldest senator, so naturally the Republicans wanted to find a Millennial to take him on

House 7th

Claymont-Arden

Dave Brady

Bryon Short

 

D:49%

R:27%

O:24%

Short cleared out of the congressional field to run for re-election, which cleared out almost all of the candidates who thought they were running to replace him

House 10th

Brandywine Hundred

Sean Matthews

Dennis Williams

 

D:45%

R:31%

O:24%

Matthews ousted Williams in a primary in 2014, and now Williams wants to do unto Matthews what Matthews did unto him

House 14th

Rehoboth Beach-Dewey Beach

Pete Schwartzkopf

Don Peterson

James DeMartino

D:41%

R:35%

O:24%

The two-front political war against Schwartzkopf, the speaker, could shrink, if DeMartino fails to show he meets the three-year residency requirement

House 33rd

Milford-Bowers Beach

Karen Williams

Morgan Hudson

Charles Postles

Bob Scott

D:38%

R:35%

O:27%

Now that Jack Peterman, the Republican state representative, is retiring, it comes as no surprise the race in the district is a free-for-all

House 35th

Lincoln-Greenwood-Bridgeville

 

Dave Wilson

Bob Mitchell

D:39%

R:38%

O:23%

Another election, another Tea Party challenge to a sitting Republican legislator

Incumbents in bold

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